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close this bookTackling Hunger in a World Full of Food: Tasks Ahead for Food Aid (WFP)
close this folder5. The evolving nature of food aid and future needs
View the document(introduction...)
View the documentA focus on hungry people, especially in emergencies
View the documentA focus on food-deficit countries
View the documentMore targeted interventions
View the documentDeclining food aid supply
View the documentProjections of food aid requirements

Projections of food aid requirements

5.18 The debate surrounding future food aid requirements continues. Global requirements have often been computed by projecting recipient country food (and foreign exchange) balance sheets, with minimal consideration of requirements based on nutritional goals or of the political economy of donor allocation decisions. Nutritional improvement goals have more recently entered into methodologies for projecting requirements. For example, even if the record level of almost 15 million tons of food aid in 1992/93 had been fully targeted on needy individuals and those individuals consumed it all, it would have met less than 50 percent of their "nutritional need" assessed at minimum caloric norms (Ezekiel 1989; Missiaen et al. 1995). If food aid alone were used to bring the world's hundreds of millions of malnourished people up to a desired nutritional status (measured in terms of a Basal Metabolic Rate of 1.54), 55 million tons would be required for the purpose by the year 2010--more than 6 times the level of total food aid available during 1995.